For generations, the people of the Sahel have built thriving communities in a harsh landscape. The Fulani guide their cattle across vast drylands, following seasonal pastures that have sustained their herds for centuries. The Tuareg have constructed vast trans-Saharan trade routes supported by oasis settlements. The Kanuri have built vast fishing communities along the waters of Lake Chad. The Bambara farm Mali’s dry central plains, using innovative techniques such as zai pits to restore soil fertility and conserve scarce water. These groups, among many others, have long adapted to the Sahel’s shifting climate.

However, today, the pace of change is accelerating. Droughts stretch longer, seasonal rains arrive too late or too forcefully—eroding the soil.  Grasslands shrink.  Wells run dry.  Lake Chad has greatly receded.  Collecting firewood, once a short morning task, may require miles of travel.  The ecosystems that sustained these ways of life for centuries are rapidly shifting. With fewer options to survive, many families have no choice but to leave.

As resources dwindle and migration rises, tensions grow. Competition over land and water is fueling disputes between farmers and herders, while extremist groups exploit instability to expand their influence. Urban centers across the Sahel are expanding rapidly, but often without proper infrastructure, services, or job opportunities for those arriving. The question is: how can we understand these patterns? How can we use data to anticipate these changes and design solutions that help communities adapt before they are forced to leave?